A few days in early August could arrive, and in mid-October

The extended forecast through mid-October and even late October looks very warm, by Michigan’s October standards.

We always have to start with a reality check in October. Our sun is lowering lower on the horizon every day and providing less heating power. Long-term historical average temperatures continue to drop by about one degree every other day. Here are the long-term average high temperatures for a week from now, October 13.

Long-term high average temperature for October 13 (based on 30 years of data).

But our weather model does not always behave normally. This will be the case for the next 10 days at least. The abnormal behavior will be a period of several weeks that wants to act like the end of summer.

Look at all the red on the extended temperature forecast maps.

The temperature forecast for most of next week gives Michigan and surrounding states an 80% chance of being warmer than average.

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Temperature probability forecast for October 11-15, 2021.

The extended forecast as above and below does not speak to how much warmer than normal. The great chance of getting hotter than normal goes hand in hand with much warmer than normal temperatures. It looks like some days of next week could be nearly 20 degrees warmer than normal. A temperature difference of 20 degrees usually puts us near the territory of record temperatures, or at least within a few degrees of record temperatures.

The high likelihood of warmer than average temperatures is expected to continue in the next extended forecast through October 19.

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Temperature probability from October 13 to October 19, 2021

The very broad three to four week forecast also calls for warmer than normal temperatures.

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Temperature probability forecast from October 16 to October 29, 2021

Here is an animation of the high temperatures modeled each day for the next nine days.

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High temperature forecast every day from Wednesday October 6 to Thursday October 14, 2021.

I’ll give you a taste of what should be the hottest day ahead – this coming Monday.

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High temperature forecast for Monday, October 11, 2021

The global weather pattern shows we are expected to warm into the low 80s on Monday, and maybe even up to 85 degrees.

The remainder of the next 10 days will likely peak in the 70s each afternoon in Lower Michigan, particularly southern Lower Michigan.

The first frost for the southern half of Lower Michigan is nowhere in sight. It looks like we’ll be getting into the latter part of October before we even think about the first frost.

Don’t move all of your summer clothes to the back of your dresser yet.


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